Swedish Study Reveals ADHD’s Impact on Criminal Convictions—and How Medication Reduces Risk

ADHD has long been associated with higher rates of criminal behavior, but most studies have relied heavily on self-reported data and small, non-representative samples. A new Swedish study addresses these limitations, providing a more comprehensive and reliable picture using data from nationwide registers. It sheds light on the role of ADHD medication in reducing the risk of criminal convictions, offering insights for clinicians, policymakers, and families.

Previous Research: The Denmark Comparison

Earlier research, such as a 2019 Danish study, found that ADHD diagnosed in children and adolescents ages 4 to 15 was associated with a 1.6-fold increased risk of future criminal conviction. However, these findings were limited by a smaller sample size and a focus on just one nation’s context. Like Denmark, Sweden’s single-payer universal healthcare system allows for the collection of extensive data on health and crime records, providing an ideal environment for large-scale, population-based research.

Swedish Study Design: A Robust Approach

To investigate ADHD’s connection to criminal behavior, the Swedish research team analyzed records from a cohort of 1,646,645 individuals born between 1986 and 1997. They excluded those who died or emigrated before age 15 (the age of criminal responsibility in Sweden) and those who immigrated to Sweden, resulting in a final study group of 1,235,939 individuals. Slightly more than half of the cohort was male.

ADHD diagnoses were based on clinical records and prescriptions for approved ADHD medications, while criminal convictions—both violent and nonviolent—were identified using Sweden’s National Crime Register, covering the years 2001 to 2013. The study adjusted for various potential confounding factors, including sex, birth year, parental education, and other psychiatric conditions. They also used the Swedish Multi-Generation Register to control for unmeasured familial factors to compare outcomes among full siblings.

Key Findings: ADHD and Criminality

The study found that ADHD is strongly associated with increased rates of criminal convictions. Compared to individuals without ADHD, those with an ADHD diagnosis were roughly:

  • Four times more likely to be convicted of a violent crime.
  • Twice as likely to be convicted of a nonviolent crime.

Interestingly, when comparing conviction rates among males and females with ADHD, the rates of nonviolent convictions were similar, but females with ADHD were about 25% more likely to be convicted of a violent crime than males with ADHD.

The Role of Medication: A Significant Moderating Factor

The research also highlighted the importance of ADHD medication in reducing criminal behavior. When individuals with ADHD who were taking medication were excluded from the analysis, the data showed significantly higher rates of criminal convictions:

  • Unmedicated males with ADHD had a 50% higher rate of violent convictions and more than double the rate of nonviolent convictions compared to their typically developing peers.
  • Unmedicated females with ADHD faced even greater risks, with nearly triple the rate of violent convictions and quadruple the rate of nonviolent convictions.

These findings suggest that ADHD medications can significantly reduce the risk of both violent and nonviolent criminal behavior in individuals with ADHD, emphasizing the value of pharmacological treatment for those with the condition.

Clinical Implications: Medication as a Risk-Reducing Strategy

The researchers concluded that “ADHD is a strong risk factor for both violent and non‐violent criminal convictions in males and females even after adjustments for psychiatric comorbidities and unmeasured familial factors.” The study also found that untreated ADHD poses a particularly high risk for criminal behavior, highlighting the protective role of medication.

These findings are clinically relevant for several reasons. First, they reinforce the importance of ensuring that individuals with ADHD have access to effective treatment options, especially during the transition from adolescence into adulthood, which is statistically a period of higher risk for criminal behavior. Additionally, the study provides critical data for shaping public policy and interventions aimed at supporting individuals with ADHD, with a focus on reducing criminality through proper management of the disorder.

Conclusion:

This study offers new insights into the complex relationship between ADHD, medication, and criminal behavior, emphasizing the crucial role of treatment in mitigating risks. It provides a compelling case for prioritizing access to ADHD medication as part of a broader strategy for supporting those with ADHD.

Anna-Karin Ångström, Anneli Andersson, Miguel Garcia-Argibay, Zheng Chang, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Catherine Tuvblad, Laura Ghirardi, and Henrik Larsson, “Criminal convictions in males and females diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: A Swedish national registry study,” JCPP Advances (2024), e12217, https://doi.org/10.1002/jcv2.12217

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ADHD medication and risk of suicide

ADHD Medication and Risk of Suicide

A Chinese research team performed two types of meta-analyses to compare the risk of suicide for ADHD patients taking ADHD medication as opposed to those not taking medication.

The first type of meta-analysis combined six large population studies with a total of over 4.7 million participants. These were located on three continents - Europe, Asia, and North America - and more specifically Sweden, England, Taiwan, and the United States.

The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be about a quarter less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p = 0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). There were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications produced divergent outcomes. A meta-analysis of four population studies covering almost 900,000 individuals found stimulant medications to be associated with a 28 percent reduced risk of suicide. On the other hand, a meta-analysis of three studies with over 62,000 individuals found no significant difference in suicide risk for non-stimulant medications. The benefit, therefore, seems limited to stimulant medication.

The second type of meta-analysis combined three within-individual studies with over 3.9 million persons in the United States, China, and Sweden. The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be almost a third less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were again barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p =0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). Once again, there were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced the sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications once again produced divergent outcomes. Meta-analysis of the same three studies found a 25 percent reduced risk of suicide among those taking stimulant medications. But as in the population studies, a meta-analysis of two studies with over 3.9 million persons found no reduction in risk among those taking non-stimulant medications.

A further meta-analysis of two studies with 3.9 million persons found no reduction in suicide risk among persons taking ADHD medications for 90 days or less, "revealing the importance of duration and adherence to medication in all individuals prescribed stimulants for ADHD."

The authors concluded, "exposure to non-stimulants is not associated with a higher risk of suicide attempts. However, a lower risk of suicide attempts was observed for stimulant drugs. However, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the evidence of heterogeneity ..."

December 13, 2021

Direct medical costs of adult incident ADHD in Germany

Direct medical costs of adult incident ADHD in Germany

A team of German researchers explored five million member records from a database that tracks more than sixty nationwide statutory health insurance programs. The database closely tracks the characteristics of the overall German population.

This was a longitudinal cohort study, tracking individuals first diagnosed with adult ADHD between 2013 and 2017. Anyone who was not continuously insured during this period was excluded, as were those who died, plus anyone older than 55 to prevent bias from high morbidity in the top age brackets.

The study team used the database to add up direct healthcare costs, including inpatient care, outpatient care, psychotherapy, medical aids and remedies, medication, and sickness benefits. In Germany, sickness benefits kick in after more than six weeks of continuous inability to work.

The study tracked data within a window extending both four years back and four years forward from the initial adult ADHD diagnosis.

The resulting study cohort consisted of 2,380 persons between 18 and 55, initially diagnosed with ADHD at an average age of 35. Sixty percent were male.

One-third were prescribed ADHD medication upon diagnosis. Four years later, only one-eighth were still on medication.

Almost two-thirds received psychotherapy, dropping to under a third in succeeding years.

During the year following diagnosis, average healthcare costs totaled about €4,000 per individual. For those who initiated ADHD medication, the average cost was just over €5,400, and for those who did not it was almost €3,500.

The authors concluded, "An important finding of the present investigation is that in the year of initial diagnosis, less than one-third of individuals received any prescription of ADHD-specific medication, and only a fourth got at least two prescriptions. At the same time, almost two-thirds of individuals received psychotherapy in the year of ADHD[adult ADHD] diagnosis. In about one-third of individuals, psychotherapy had been initiated already before a diagnosis of ADHD, presumably for treatment of comorbid disorders. ... In current German guidelines, ADHD-specific medication is recommended as the first choice ... Apparently, despite the vast body of evidence for the beneficial effects of ADHD-specific medication, at least in the short-term, and in contrast to the recommendations of previous and current guidelines, stimulant medication is only reluctantly prescribed in newly identified adults with ADHD. ... Overall, our findings suggest that significant deficiencies may currently exist concerning the reality of healthcare for ADHD in Germany, and that guideline recommendations are not yet comprehensively implemented in everyday routine care."

December 7, 2021

How Effective and Safe are Stimulant Medications for Older Adults?

How effective and safe are stimulant medications for older adults?

Older adults are at greater risk for cardiovascular disease. Psychostimulants may contribute to that risk through side effects, such as elevation of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate.

On the other hand, smoking, substance abuse, obesity, and chronic sleep loss - all of which are associated with ADHD - are known to increase cardiovascular risk, and stimulant medications are an effective treatment for ADHD.

So how does this all shake out? A Dutch team of researchers sets out to explore this. Using electronic health records, they compared all 139 patients 55 years and older at PsyQ outpatient clinic, Program Adult ADHD, in The Hague. Because a principal aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of medication on cardiovascular functioning after first medication use, the 26 patients who had previously been prescribed ADHD medication were excluded from the study, leaving a sample size of 113.

The ages of participants ranged from 55 from 79, with a mean of 61. Slightly over half were women. At the outset, 13 percent had elevated systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure, 2 percent had an irregular heart rate, 15 percent had an abnormal electrocardiogram, and 29 percent had some combination of these (a "cardiovascular risk profile"), and 21 percent used antihypertensive medication.

Three out of four participants had at least e comorbid disorder. The most common are sleep disorders, affecting a quarter of participants, and unipolar mood disorders (depressive or more rarely manic episodes, but not both), also affecting a quarter of participants.

Twenty-four patients did not initiate pharmacological treatment. Of the 89 who received ADHD medication, 58 (65%) reported positive effects, and five experienced no effect. Thirty-eight (43%) discontinued ADHD medication while at the clinic due to lack of effect or to side effects. The most commonly reported positive effects were enhanced concentration, more overview, less restlessness, more stable mood, and having more energy. The principal reasons for discontinuing medication were anxiety/depression, cardiovascular complaints, and lack of effect.

Methylphenidate raised heart rate and lowered weight, but had no significant effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Moreover, there was no significant correlation between methylphenidate dosage and any of these variables, nor between methylphenidate users taking hypertensive medication and those not taking such medication. There was no significant difference in systolic or diastolic blood pressure and heart rate before and after the use of methylphenidate among patients with the cardiovascular risk profiles.

Systolic blood pressure rose in ten out of 64 patients, with two experiencing an increase of at least 20 mmHg. It descended in five patients, with three having a decrease of at least 20 mmHg. Diastolic blood pressure rose by at least 10 mmHg in four patients, while dropping at least 10 mmHg in five others.

The authors concluded "that the use of a low dose of ADHD-medication is well tolerated and does not cause clinically significant cardiovascular changes among older adults with ADHD, even among those with an increased cardiovascular risk profile. Furthermore, our older patients experienced significant and clinically relevant improvement of their ADHD symptoms using stimulants, comparable with what is found among the younger age group," and that "the use of methylphenidate may be a relatively safe and effective treatment for older adults with ADHD, under the condition that all somatic complaints and especially cardiovascular parameters are monitored before and during pharmacological treatment."

Yet they cautioned that "due to the observational nature of the study and the lack of a control group, no firm conclusions can be drawn as to the effectiveness of the stimulants used. ... Important factors that were not systematically reported were the presence of other risk factors, such as smoking, substance (ab)use, aspirin use, and level of physical activity. In addition, the response to medication was not systematically measured"

December 21, 2021

French Cohort Study: Does Methylphenidate Increase Risk of Mania in Patients with Comorbid BP and ADHD?

The Background:

Methylphenidate is an effective treatment for ADHD in adults who also have bipolar disorder (BD), but it carries a potential risk of triggering manic episodes. Current guidelines therefore recommend using it only alongside mood-stabilizing medication. A new study using French nationwide claims data sought to test and extend those recommendations with greater statistical power than previous research. 

The Study:

The study built on findings by Viktorin et al. (2017), who observed that adults with BD not taking mood stabilizers had more than a sixfold higher risk of manic events (defined as hospitalization for mania or a new antimanic prescription) within six months of starting methylphenidate. Patients on mood-stabilizing treatment, by contrast, showed nearly half the baseline risk in the first three months. Those findings were limited, however, by small event counts (fewer than 61 manic episodes) and an effect that did not persist beyond the initial three-month window. 

To build on this, researchers drew on the French National Health Data System (which is a claims database covering more than 60 million people) spanning 2008 to 2024. The final sample included 6,022 adults with BD (56% women) who had started methylphenidate. Using a self-controlled design, the study compared each patient's rate of manic events in the six months before their first methylphenidate prescription with the rate in the six months after, effectively eliminating stable individual differences as a confound. 

Patients were classified as receiving continuous mood-stabilizing treatment if they had been dispensed at least two courses of specific antipsychotics (aripiprazole, olanzapine, or quetiapine) or mood stabilizers (lithium or valproate) in the nine months before starting methylphenidate, including at least one dispensation in the final six months of that window. 

The Results:

The results largely confirmed the earlier findings. Among the 2,745 patients not on mood stabilizers, the rate of inpatient mania diagnosis was 5.1 times higher in the first three months after starting methylphenidate, though this elevation fell to a non-significant level over the subsequent three months. Patients receiving continuous mood-stabilizing treatment showed no statistically significant change in mania risk across the full six-month post-initiation period. A formulation-specific pattern also emerged: patients without mood-stabilizing treatment had a 2.5-fold higher risk associated with extended-release methylphenidate, while no significant risk increase was seen with the immediate-release formulation or in treated patients regardless of formulation. 

The Conclusion:

The authors conclude that methylphenidate at doses below 30 mg does not appear to elevate manic relapse risk when prescribed alongside mood stabilizers. The elevated risk seen in untreated patients, particularly with extended-release formulations, must be interpreted cautiously, given limited statistical power and the likelihood that it partly reflects the natural fluctuation of manic relapse over time. The authors flag this as an inherent limitation of self-controlled survival analyses when studying drug-induced mania, where temporal trends in the underlying condition can be difficult to disentangle from treatment effects. 

A New ADHD Medication That Works Differently in the Brain

The FDA has approved a new once-daily pill called centanafadine (trade name SIMTRIYO®). Approved for adults and kids aged 6 and older (weighing at least 44 lbs / 20 kg), centanafadine is a new category of ADHD treatment that aims to give fast results with fewer of the downsides of traditional stimulants.

What Makes This Drug Different?

To understand why centanafadine is unique among medications for ADHD, it helps to look at how ADHD brain chemistry works:

  1. Norepinephrine: Powers focus, alertness, and attention span.
  1. Dopamine: Drives motivation, reward system, and decision-making.
  1. Serotonin: Regulates mood, anxiety levels, and emotional stability.

Stimulants like Ritalin and Adderall work mainly in the dopamine system.  Nonstimulants like atomoxetine, viloxazine, clonidine and guanfacine work mainly on the norepinephrine system.  Centanafadine is the first drug in a new class called NDSRIs (Norepinephrine, Dopamine, and Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors). We can describe its effects as follows:

  • Heavy boost to Norepinephrine: Delivers the strong focus and attention boost you need.
  • Moderate, smooth increase to Dopamine: Helps with motivation and brain executive function without triggering massive dopamine spikes that lead to addiction or heavy crashes.
  • Moderate boost to Serotonin: Helps smooth out mood swings and keeps anxiety under control.

What Did Clinical Trials Show?

The FDA approved centanafadine based on studies involving thousands of adults, teens, and children. Here are the key findings:

Centanafadine showed some improvement in ADHD symptoms within the very first week of taking it although a full effect takes about six weeks.

In adult trials, taking 200 mg or 400 mg daily led to significant improvements in real-world skills:

  • Time management and prioritizing tasks
  • Starting projects without procrastinating
  • Planning complex tasks and staying organized
  • Short-term working memory

In trials with children (ages 6–12) and teens (ages 13–17), centanafadine significantly reduced core ADHD symptoms like hyperactivity, impulsivity, and lack of focus compared to a placebo.

About 30% to 40% of adults with ADHD also suffer from anxiety. Traditional stimulants can make anxiety worse. In a trial specifically designed for adults dealing with both ADHD and anxiety, centanafadine effectively treated ADHD symptoms without firing up their anxiety, which might be due to its serotonin boost.

Does Centanafadine have Side Effects?

While Centanafadine was well-tolerated by most people in studies, like any prescription medication, it comes with important safety guidelines.

Prescribing Warnings:

  • Suicidal Thoughts in Children: In trials for kids aged 6 to 12, centanafadine was linked to a higher risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviors compared to a sugar pill.  Although rare, parents and doctors should look for changes in mood or behavior, especially when starting or changing doses.
  • Stimulant Classification: Because it acts on central nervous system pathways, especially dopamine, centanafadine is classified as a CNS stimulant so might lead to addiction. While it has a much lower abuse risk than stimulants like Ritalin or Adderall, doctors should still evaluate patients for any history of substance abuse before prescribing.

Common Side Effects:

  • Kids & Teens: Decreased appetite, stomach ache, nausea, rash, and headache.
  • Adults: Dry mouth, difficulty sleeping (insomnia), decreased appetite, nausea, and headaches.

Other Warnings:

  • Heart & Blood Pressure: It can cause small increases in heart rate and blood pressure, so doctors will check these regularly.
  • Drug Interactions: It cannot be taken with certain antidepressants (MAOIs) due to dangerous blood pressure risks.

The Bottom Line

Overall, centanafadine is a new step forward in how we treat ADHD. Because it acts differently in the brain than traditional treatments, patients who struggle with stimulant-related anxiety or side effects may find it useful to explore with their doctor.

Nitrogen Dioxide Linked to Higher ADHD Risk: Insights from a Massive South Korean Study

A landmark nationwide study from South Korea has uncovered a significant link between prenatal exposure to air pollution — specifically nitrogen dioxide (NO2) — and an increased risk of ADHD in children. 

While researchers have long suspected that air pollutants interfere with fetal brain development through inflammation and oxidative stress, this study is one of the largest and most comprehensive of its kind, following nearly 1.5 million births for up to 13 years. 

Why South Korea? 

South Korea provided a unique countrywide “laboratory” for this research due to two key infrastructure strengths: 

  • Universal Health Data: A national insurance database that tracks the health outcomes of the entire population. 
  • Granular Air Monitoring: A network of 642 monitoring stations that allowed researchers to precisely estimate what pollutants mothers were breathing based on their postal codes. 

Key Findings: The “Smoking Gun” of NO2 

While the study looked at several pollutants, nitrogen dioxide — a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion in cars and power plants — emerged as the primary concern. 

Pollutant 

Association with ADHD Risk 

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) 

Strongest Link: Every 1-ppb (part-per-billion) increase in exposure linked to a 22% rise in risk. 

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 

Minimal Link: Only a slight 4% increase per ppb. 

Ozone (O3) carbon monoxide (CO), & particulates 

No significant association was found. 

The scale of the NO2 risk is particularly striking. Over the typical range of exposure levels found in the study (an interquartile range of 13 ppb), the data suggest a threefold increase in ADHD risk for children in the highest-exposure groups compared to the lowest. 

Accounting for Other Factors 

To ensure the results weren’t skewed by other variables, the researchers controlled for a wide range of confounders including: 

  • Socioeconomic and employment status. 
  • Maternal age and baseline health. 
  • The child’s sex. 
  • The presence of 14 different medical conditions around childbirth. 

The authors emphasized the strong association between maternal nitrogen dioxide exposure and ADHD, while also noting the small but significant association with sulfur dioxide.  

The Take-Away: A New Frontier for Public Health 

Historically, air quality laws have been designed to protect our lungs and hearts. However, this study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that the brain is likewise vulnerable. 

In a commentary on the findings, expert George Ayoub argued that “neurodevelopment should be explicitly considered” when governments perform cost-benefit analyses on air quality regulation.  My view is a bit different.  The association is intriguing but the study does not establish cause and effect.  Many statistically significant environmental risk associations for neurodevelopmental disorders have disappeared after controlling for maternal risk for ADHD.  I hope this research team will do those analyses if feasible.